According to a new study, titled Global labour loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers and published in Nature Communications, the current loss of heavy labour work hours due to heat in India stood at around 100 billion hours annually. Depending on the climate models used, it could already be as high as 259 billion hours and more if the globe were to warm by 4°C.
Labour losses weighted by the working-age population engaged in outdoor labour are highest in South, East, and Southeast Asia where there are large numbers of working-age people working in agriculture, the study says. Pointing out that workers who engage in outdoor heavy labour are already putting a big strain on their bodies, the study suggests that this type of work is set to become seriously unsafe or impossible in hot and humid countries with global warming progressing. And as per analysis of the study by Statista, a German data company that does analysis and collates data from various sources, a warming of this magnitude is expected if the world continues on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions. “Labour losses are most pronounced in India, which accounts for almost half of the global total losses and experienced over four times the labour losses of the second most impacted country, China,” the report states.
The analysis further reads that if the world sticks to its climate goals and policies, a warming of 2°C to 3°C can be expected and according to the second study by these researchers, a loss of 100 billion Indian heavy labour work hours is equal to the loss of around $240 billion adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). Comparatively, in China, which has a similar population to India, only 21 billion to 72 billion work hours are estimated to currently be lost to global warming, as the country has transitioned away from heavy labour industries like agriculture and manual construction.
“Globally, humid heat may currently be associated with over 650 billion hours of annual lost labour (148 million full time equivalent jobs lost), 400 billion hours more than previous estimates. These differences in labour loss estimates are comparable to losses caused by the COVID-19,” the paper reads. Over the last four decades, global heat-related labour losses increased by at least 9 per cent (more than 60 billion hours annually using the new empirical model) highlighting that relatively small changes in climate (less than 0.5 C) can have large impacts on global labour and the economy, the researchers have estimated.